WORK IN PROGRESS PLEASE CHECK BACK
My main academic and investment interest is in discontinuities and disruptions in the global economy. Discontinuities are shocks outside “normal” variations around a mean. Disruptions are trends often outside economics that can collide with and change the path of the global economy. Though hard to understand, events driven by discontinuities and disruptions are both surprisingly common and potentially ruinous and/or remunerative. The disruptions tend to be longer terms, and may only amplify the effects of discontinuities, rather than have effects by themselves. The blog and resources on the site are largely dedicated to reporting on trends and events and some of the evolving methodologies that might help us understand and prepare for them. Right now we aren’t very good at that.
The links to the right connect to summaries of some potential disruptions, scenarios on how they may play out, and bets that can be made to potentially limit risk or increase gains. The blog highlights new findings and musings on possible directions. Comments are always welcome.